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Dollar falls as traders focus on data for Fed policy clues
  + stars: | 2024-01-08 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: +2 min
The greenback initially bounced on Friday after data showed that U.S. employers hired 216,000 workers in December, above economists' expectations in a Reuters poll, while average hourly earnings rose 0.4%, which was also above expectations. The U.S. currency then dropped, however, as investors focused on some underlying factors in the jobs report that showed less strength. It declined further after a separate report showed the U.S. services sector slowed considerably in December, with a measure of employment dropping to the lowest level in nearly 3-1/2 years. The release on Thursday of the consumer price inflation report for December will be the main piece of economic data this week. Fed funds futures traders are pricing in rate cuts beginning in March, though the odds of a move that soon have fallen.
Persons: Helen, Raphael Bostic Organizations: Federal Reserve, greenback, Monex USA, New York Fed, Traders, Atlanta Fed Locations: U.S, Washington
CNBC's Jim Cramer on Friday told investors what to focus on going into the week ahead, including the start of earnings season and reports from companies like Walgreens , Domino's and PepsiCo . Thursday will see a slew of companies release earnings, including Delta Air Lines , Walgreens and Domino's. Cramer said he bets Domino's deal with Uber Eats may boost earnings, but he was more pessimistic about Delta's report. He also said he expects poor earnings from Walgreens, saying he thinks the health-care company's drugstore business seems "in total disarray." On Friday, numerous financial services companies will report, including Wells Fargo , JPMorgan Chase , Citigroup and BlackRock .
Persons: CNBC's Jim Cramer, Cramer, we've, Uber Organizations: Walgreens, Domino's, PepsiCo, Natural Resources, Exxon Mobil, Adobe, Delta Air Lines, JPMorgan Chase, Citigroup, BlackRock Locations: Wells Fargo
Here's what you need to know about the big jobs report Friday
  + stars: | 2023-10-05 | by ( Jeff Cox | ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: +1 min
A strong jobs market could equal a weak stock market if current trends hold up. Friday's nonfarm payrolls report will provide a major test for Wall Street, which has been on edge all week about a surprisingly resilient labor picture. The fear is that if the tight labor market holds up, the Federal Reserve will hold interest rates high and jeopardize the U.S. economy at a critical time. "Clearly the market is hoping for a headline number that reinforces a labor market that has slowed but remains resilient." Fed officials watch the metric closely as an indicator of tightness in the labor market.
Persons: Friday's nonfarm, Dow Jones, Quincy Krosby, Stocks Organizations: Wall, Federal Reserve, LPL, Labor Department, Labor, Treasury
US stocks moved higher on Wednesday, while bond yields declined Tuesday's highs. ADP reported private payrolls climbed 89,000 in September, below forecasts of 160,000. NEW LOOK Sign up to get the inside scoop on today’s biggest stories in markets, tech, and business — delivered daily. download the app Email address Sign up By clicking “Sign Up”, you accept our Terms of Service and Privacy Policy . AdvertisementAdvertisementUS stocks moved higher on Wednesday, as the 10-year US Treasury yield retreated slightly after hitting 16-year highs.
Persons: payrolls, , Dow Jones, Dan North, Quincy Krosby Organizations: Treasury, Service, Dow Jones Industrial, Nasdaq, Federal Reserve, Fed, Allianz Trade North, JPMorgan, Dow Jones Locations: Allianz Trade North America
CNBC's Jim Cramer said Wednesday he sees conditions that could spur a stock market rally, following a challenging few weeks on Wall Street. "We certainly have plenty of tinder for a rally — there are some Kingsfords lying around, maybe even a Duraflame or two," he said. However, he added that this potential economic weakness could hurt plenty of sectors, including retailers, banks and housing. But this weakness soon gave way to a tech-fueled rally, he said. He added that he's not sure whether the "uniform negativity" on Wall Street — especially talk of declining bond prices — means a bottom, but to him, it's a possibility.
Persons: CNBC's Jim Cramer, Cramer, Friday's, he's, We'll Organizations: Federal, Nasdaq, Microsoft, Nvidia, Meta
Some of the market's biggest stock market investors echoed this view. Ackman said on Monday morning he didn't expect another rate hike. "If you just listen to their words, you know, you have to be pretty fearful there's going to be another rate hike. "Those numbers need to be supportive," Rieder had said of inflation data and jobs data including the JOLTS report in an interview with CNBC on the sidelines of DA. Ackman, even betting against another rate hike, has a view of inflation that sees it being persistently higher and placing more pressure on yields.
Persons: Bill Ackman, Katie Koch, reprice, Koch, Cash, Brad Gerstner, Gerstner, We've, Ackman, That's, they're, Jerome Powell, Volcker, Rick Rieder, You've, Rieder Organizations: Federal Reserve, Dow Jones, CNBC, Alpha, TCW, DA, Fed, Labor, BlackRock
Jim Cramer's week ahead: Focus on September jobs report
  + stars: | 2023-09-29 | by ( Julie Coleman | ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: +2 min
CNBC's Jim Cramer said next Friday's nonfarm payrolls — the employment data over the past month — may decide if October will see a market rally. On Tuesday, spice and flavor manufacturer McCormick will report earnings, and beverage company Molson Coors will have an analyst meeting. Cramer said the tech company is coming off the report of a great quarter and forecast, and he thinks the stock could have more room to run. Cramer again emphasized Friday's labor report, saying in order to have a "strong October," the nonfarm payrolls need to show some slack in the workforce. Cramer noted the jobs report will not come out if the government shuts down.
Persons: CNBC's Jim Cramer, Cramer, Kellogg, WK Kellogg, McCormick, Okta, we'd, Jay Powell Organizations: Labor, Molson Coors, Dell, Federal Reserve, Fed
The 2-year Treasury yield was last at 4.96% after climbing by 9 basis points. U.S. Treasury yields climbed on Tuesday as markets reopened after the Labor Day holiday and investors considered what could be next for the economy. Investors continued to weigh the outlook for the economy as oil prices spiked on a extension in supply curbs and soft services data rolled in across the globe. "Surging oil prices are also weighing on sentiment as the risk of $100 appears to be back," he said. Markets are bracing for the Federal Reserve's policy meeting later this month, with traders expecting the central bank to leave rates unchanged at its next meeting later this month.
Persons: Ed Moya, nonfarm Organizations: Treasury, U.S, Labor, Investors, Federal
Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller said Tuesday that the recent round of strong economic data will buy the central bank some time as it decides whether additional interest rate hikes are needed to control inflation. "The biggest thing is just inflation," Waller said. "That depends on the data," Waller said when asked whether the rate increases can stop. Markets are assigning a near certainty to the chances that the Fed skips a rate rise at its Sept. 19-20 meeting. "It's not obvious that we're in real danger of doing a lot of damage to the job market, even if we raise rates one more time."
Persons: Christopher Waller, Waller, CNBC's Steve Liesman, We've, Goldman Sachs, Jerome Powell Organizations: Federal, Market, Group
All three major averages advanced for the week, powered by strong mega-cap earnings and favorable inflation data. Looking to next week, earnings season enters its second half with the last of our mega-caps — Apple (AAPL) and Amazon (AMZN) — set to report on Thursday. We'll get a better read on the employment picture on Wednesday with the ADP report and then, more importantly, on Friday's nonfarm payrolls report for July. Thursday after the close brings us to the main events of the week: Earnings from Apple and Amazon. For those looking to review first quarter performance ahead of these releases, be sure to keep our first-quarter earnings report card handy.
Persons: We'll, that's, Stanley Black, Decker, Emerson, Bausch, Leggett, Platt, SIRI, Ares, COLM, PERI, Kraft Heinz, Phillips, Ferrari N.V, Johnson, Robinson, COOK, BUD, Kellogg, Papa, Pitney Bowes, Parker, Trimble, Ziff Davis, Nonfarm, Jim Cramer's, Jim Cramer, Jim, Apple Tim Cook, Kevin Dietsch Organizations: Nasdaq, Dow, Federal Reserve, Federal, ISM Manufacturing, Services PMI, Investors, Caterpillar, Devices, Starbucks, Natural Resources, AMD, Management, Emerson Electric and, Humana, Bausch Health, Apple, Microsoft, Resource Partners, AerCap Holdings, CNA Financial Corp, CNA, Apellis Pharmaceuticals, Bank, SJW, Hutchison China MediTech, Camtek Ltd, Silvercrest Asset Management, Loews Corp, Oxford Lane Capital Corp, Banco Santander, Silicom Ltd, SuperCom Ltd, Arista Networks, Avis Budget Group, Diamondback Energy, Lattice Semiconductor Corp, Republic Services, Yum China Holdings, Western Digital Corp, Power Systems, Tenet Healthcare Corp, Vornado Realty, BioMarin Pharmaceutical, PetMed, SBA Communications Corporation, Brixmor, Snack Foods Corp, Cushman & Wakefield, Sanmina Corporation, TFI, PMI, Cruise Line Holdings Ltd, Uber Technologies, Pfizer, Enterprise Products Partners, Merck, JetBlue Airways Corporation, Allegro MicroSystems, Altria, SunPower Corp, SiriusXM Holdings, Molson Coors Beverage, Marriott International, Toyota Motor Corp, BP, SYSCO Corp, Marathon Petroleum Corp, Ares Management, Equitrans Midstream Corporation, Game Technology, Illinois Tool, IDEXX Laboratories, Rockwell Automation, Packaging International Corp, Gartner, Zebra Technologies Corp, IQVIA Holdings, Oshkosh Corporation, Leidos Holdings, Eaton Corp, yte Corp, Lear Corp, Starbucks Corp, Devon Energy Corp, SolarEdge Technologies, Lumen Technologies, Virgin Galactic Holdings, Caesars Entertainment, VF Corp, Sciences Corp, Paycom, Vertex Pharmaceuticals, Suncor Energy, Holdings, Chesapeake Energy Corp, Boston Properties, American International Group, AIG, Allstate Corp, Aspen Technology, Electronic Arts, EA, Flowserve Corporation, Denny's, Corp, Prudential Financial, Store, Ternium S.A, Vimeo, Emerson, Lomb, CVS Health, Generac Holdings, Cameco Corp, Perion Network Ltd, Builders, Carlyle Group, Scorpio, Teva Pharmaceutical Industries, Ltd, Rithm Capital Corp, AeroSystems Holdings, Vertiv Holdings Co, Johnson Controls, CDW Corp, DuPont, Brands Holdings, Scotts Miracle, Gro, SMG, Brands, Allegheny Technologies, AmerisourceBergen Corporation, ABC, Real Estate Corporation, Adient plc, Editas, Garmin Ltd, WWE, Bunge Ltd, Criteo S.A, PayPal, QUALCOMM, Occidental Petroleum Corp, Apache Corp, Albemarle Corp, MGM Resorts International, MGM, Marathon Oil Corp, Joby Aviation, Industrial, CF Industries Holdings, Goodyear Tire &, Realty ome Corp, Metlife, Pacific Biosciences of, Rush Street Interactive, Zillow, JFrog Ltd, Herbalife Nutrition Ltd, Simon Property Group, McKesson Corp, Storage, Cerus Corporation, GXO Logistics, MAX Holdings, Health, Anheuser, Busch InBev, Warner Bros ., Cheniere Energy, ConocoPhillips, Hasbro, CIGNA Corp, Lantheus Holdings, Regeneron Pharmaceuticals, Fiverr International, Air Products & Chemicals, TopBuild Corp, EPAM Systems, Lightspeed Commerce, Aurinia Pharmaceuticals, Cummins, CMI, Slair Corporation, Starwood Property Trust, Vulcan, Alnylam Pharmaceuticals, New Energy Corp, Cedar Fair Entertainment, Intellia Therapeutics, Lending, Privia Health, Dickinson, Chimera Investment, CIM, Hyatt Hotels Corp, Lion Electric, LEV, Deluxe Corp, Murphy Oil Corp, PBF Energy, Papa John's, Targa Resources Corp, Wix.com Ltd, Apollo Global Management, LLC, Butterfly, Sempra Energy, Aptiv PLC, Brookfield Infrastructure Partners, Canada Goose Holdings, Hannifin Corporation, WESCO International, WCC, Arrow Electronics, Constellation Energy Group, Midstream Partners, Coinbase, Petroleo Brasileiro SA Petrobras, Gilead Sciences, Opendoor Technologies, Booking Holdings, Atlassian Corporation, International, Redfin Corporation, Motorola Solutions, Monster Beverage Corporation, Consolidated Edison, Rocket Companies, Apple Hospitality, Cirrus, Resources, Universal Display Corporation, Chesapeake Utilities Corp, Social, Defense, Security Solutions, Post Holdings, Tandem Diabetes Care, Nikola Corporation, Magna International, Dominion Energy, ACM Research, Frontier Communications, Brookfield Renewable Partners, inTEST Corporation, American Pipeline, TELUS International, XPO Logistics, Fluor Corp, Gray Television, Cboe, LyondellBasell Industries, Twist Bioscience, Global, Jim Cramer's Charitable, CNBC, Allen & Company Sun Valley, Getty Locations: U.S, China, India, Oxford, Chile, Illinois, Columbia, Pacific, Pacific Biosciences of California, Southern, PBI, Gilead, Sun Valley , Idaho
While the natural inclination is to cheer a strong jobs market, investors are responding with a boo and bailing out of risk assets. The thinking goes like this: If people are at work and the labor market is stronger than expected, the ability of the consumer to absorb higher prices is also greater than previously thought. If the ability to absorb higher prices is greater than expected, above target (2%) inflation can last longer than estimated, regardless of the current fed funds rate. If the current fed funds rate isn't stopping hiring and consumers' ability to absorb higher prices, the rate simply isn't high enough. Energy is tough: We really need China's reopening to pick up as demand will be the key to higher energy prices.
Persons: , — it's, it's, Staples, Eli Lilly, we've, Friday's nonfarm, We're, Jim Cramer's, Jim Cramer, Jim, Spencer Platt Organizations: Federal Reserve, Apple, Nvidia, American Electric Power, Treasury, Silicon Valley Bank, Constellation Brands, Management, GE Healthcare, Technology, Linde, LIN, Energy, buybacks, Microsoft, Verizon, Disney, Procter & Gamble, Jim Cramer's Charitable, CNBC, Traders, New York Stock Exchange, Getty Locations: Silicon, U.S, Friday's, New York City
Dollar dips ahead of key US inflation data
  + stars: | 2023-04-12 | by ( Rae Wee | ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +3 min
SINGAPORE, April 12 (Reuters) - The U.S. dollar slipped on Wednesday ahead of a closely-watched inflation reading later in the day that will provide clues on the path of Federal Reserve interest rate hikes. Following last week's solid U.S. jobs data, all eyes are now on the inflation report, with currency moves subdued ahead of the release. A Reuters poll of economists have forecast headline inflation in March to come in at 5.2% year-on-year, down from 6.0% previously, while core inflation likely ticked higher to 5.6%. Meanwhile, Philadelphia Fed Bank President Patrick Harker said he feels that the end of rate hikes may be near. On Tuesday, Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee said that the U.S. central bank should be patient about raising interest rates in the face of recent banking sector stress.
Dollar dips ahead of key U.S. inflation data
  + stars: | 2023-04-12 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: +3 min
Five, ten, twenty, fifty and one hundred dollar bills spread outThe U.S. dollar slipped on Wednesday ahead of a closely-watched inflation reading later in the day that will provide clues on the path of Federal Reserve interest rate hikes. Following last week's solid U.S. jobs data, all eyes are now on the inflation report, with currency moves subdued ahead of the release. A Reuters poll of economists have forecast headline inflation in March to come in at 5.2% year-on-year, down from 6.0% previously, while core inflation likely ticked higher to 5.6%. "Powell has said numerous times he wants to see a downtrend in underlying inflation, but the data's not providing that yet. Meanwhile, Philadelphia Fed Bank President Patrick Harker said he feels that the end of rate hikes may be near.
Investors need to prepare as signs build that a recession is coming, according to Bank of America strategist Michael Hartnett. The "drumbeat of recession [is] getting ever louder," the investment strategist said in his weekly "Flow Show" note that looks at where money is moving. Hartnett's "best plays for start of recession" include Treasury bills, which he said outperform until the Federal Reserve starts cutting rates. In this case, Hartnett likes that play in anticipation that the Federal Reserve likely will have to begin easing as unemployment rises later in the year. And, of course, nothing lasts forever, so Hartnett advises investors to prepare a "shopping list" of things to buy when conditions change.
ET, the yield on the benchmark 10-year Treasury note was up by almost 1 basis point at 3.2958% while the yield on the 30-year Treasury bond rose by 1.2 basis points to 3.5667%. U.S. Treasury yields were slightly higher early on Thursday morning as investors assessed recent labor market data in order to gauge the possibility of an upcoming recession. Yields turned lower on Wednesday after the ADP private payrolls report came in below expectations, signaling a slowdown in hiring in March, while the ISM Services index also showed slower-than-expected growth, adding to recession fears. Investors will be closely watching Friday's nonfarm payrolls report for further signs that the Fed's monetary policy tightening is beginning to cool the economy. Auctions will be held Thursday for $60 billion of 4-week Treasury bills and $50 billion of 8-week bills.
Private sector hiring decelerated in March, flashing another potential sign that U.S. economic growth is heading for a sharp slowdown or recession, payroll processing firm ADP reported Wednesday. Company payrolls rose by just 145,000 for the month, down from an upwardly revised 261,000 in February and below the Dow Jones estimate for 210,000. The ADP report serves as a precursor to Friday's nonfarm payrolls report from the Labor Department. ADP changed its methodology last year, and its count on average was about 100,000 less per month than the government's in 2022. Economists surveyed by Dow Jones expect Friday's report to show payroll growth of 238,000 in March and the unemployment rate holding at 3.6%.
Federal Reserve Chair Jerome H. Powell testifies before a House Financial Services hearing on "The Federal Reserve's Semi-Annual Monetary Policy Report" on Capitol Hill in Washington, U.S., March 8, 2023. That changed after Powell's appearance, during which he cautioned that if inflation data remains strong, he expects rates to go "higher than previously anticipated" and possibly at a faster pace than a quarter point at a time. Basically, it was the January inflation data plus signs that the labor market remains remarkably strong despite the Fed's efforts to slow it down. Brusuelas is among those who think the Fed should accelerate its inflation battle with a half-point rate hike. However, he said policymakers could be swayed by a potentially softer jobs report and inflation data next week that reverses course and shows price increases abating.
His comments came after a strong jobs report last week stymied rising hopes of less aggressive monetary policy. The Nasdaq and the S&P 500 fluctuated during and after Powell's remarks. Boosting the tech-heavy Nasdaq (.IXIC) and the S&P 500 (.SPX) was Microsoft Corp (MSFT.O). Six of the top 11 sectors on the S&P 500 fell, but technology (.SPLRCT) was among top gainers, up 1.61%. So far, more than half of the companies on the S&P 500 have reported quarterly earnings, with 69.1% of them beating expectations, according to Refinitiv.
Dollar climbs as central banks see inflation risks unwind
  + stars: | 2023-02-03 | by ( Rae Wee | ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +3 min
Elsewhere, the greenback broadly advanced on the back of its Atlantic counterparts' decline, reversing its losses earlier in the week. On Thursday, the ECB and BoE each raised interest rates by 50 basis points as expected, with the latter signalling the tide was turning in its battle against high inflation. The comments from policymakers following a slew of central bank meetings this week have markets seizing on signs that interest rates could be close to peaking in most major economies. "We're starting to see central banks converging to a pattern now ... the major central banks are definitely approaching the end of their tightening cycles," said CBA's Kong. An imminent peak in U.S. rates has provided some relief for the Japanese yen , which last year crumbled under pressure from rising interest rate differentials against Japan's low interest rate environment.
Dollar plunges as Fed says disinflation now in play
  + stars: | 2023-02-02 | by ( Rae Wee | ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +3 min
The dollar dived following Powell's remarks, and against a basket of currencies, the U.S. dollar index fell to a fresh nine-month low of 100.80. Against the Japanese yen , the dollar fell 0.55% to 128.21. With the Fed out of the way, the stage is set for the European Central Bank (ECB) and the Bank of England (BoE) to announce their rate decisions later on Thursday, where expectations are for a 50bp hike from each. "I don't think that's going to influence the messaging from the ECB, which I think is still going to be that (they've) got a lot to do," Attrill said. Markets are now expecting the Fed funds rate to peak just under 4.9% by June, compared with earlier expectations of a peak of just below 5%.
LONDON, Jan 12 (Reuters) - The yen got a boost on Thursday on expectations the Bank of Japan will review the side effects of its monetary easing, while the dollar held near a seven-month low against the euro ahead of U.S. inflation data later in the day. "You could start to see the normalisation of monetary policy which would be a huge step for Japan (and) a very positive tailwind for the yen," Turner added. The U.S. dollar index was last down 0.06% to 103.04, not far off its seven-month low of 102.93 hit earlier in the week. "Our core views for Fed policy versus ECB policy would be for a stronger euro-dollar through the year." Data released on Thursday showed Australia's trade surplus unexpectedly widened in November and came in well above forecasts.
No matter what Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell tells market participants these days, it seems they only hear the good stuff. Two recent examples: First in July, when Powell hinted that smaller interest rate hikes could be on the way. Chair Powell is really trying to message the fact that the fed funds rate has to be restrictive to tamp down inflation. A month and a half later, Powell delivered an uncharacteristically terse speech at the Fed's annual Jackson Hole, Wyoming summit. One more chance So Powell heads into next week's Federal Open Market Committee meeting with another opportunity to set the market straight.
If you take anything away from today's newsletter, let it be this: As of today, Russian oil faces a new European Union embargo, as well as a price cap. EU leaders have been debating a price cap for months, but on Friday agreed to a $60-a-barrel level. Some analysts predict Russian oil exports could drop by 1 million barrels per day, or about 20% of its seaborne volume. She told me over a video call from London that, ultimately, oil markets probably won't react dramatically in either direction. What do you think is the most likely outcome of the new sanctions on Russian oil?
It is very premature, in my view, to think about or be talking about pausing our rate hikes. The news sent those stocks reliant on China for growth — Starbucks, Estee Lauder and Wynn Resorts, among many others — higher. Or bad news could just be bad news if weak data signals a recession ahead. And good news could be good news: for example, if China reopens and U.S. companies exposed to the region see a boost in demand. As a subscriber to the CNBC Investing Club with Jim Cramer, you will receive a trade alert before Jim makes a trade.
Job openings surged in September despite Federal Reserve efforts aimed at loosening up a historically tight labor market that has helped feed the highest inflation readings in four decades. Employment openings for the month totaled 10.72 million, well above the FactSet estimate for 9.85 million, according to data Tuesday from the Bureau of Labor Statistics' Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey. The latest numbers are unlikely to sway central bank officials from approving what likely will be a fourth consecutive 0.75 percentage point interest rate increase this week. That was slightly better than the Dow Jones estimate for 50.0 but 0.9 percentage point lower than September. Markets are pricing in a nearly 90% chance of a 0.75 percentage point increase, while narrowly expecting another 0.5 percentage point move in December, according to CME Group data.
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